KABUL — A tide of returning Afghan migrants is raising alarm among diplomats and security experts, who fear the mass displacement could become fertile ground for extremist recruitment, according to AFP.
Since January, more than 2.6 million Afghans have been forced back from Pakistan and Iran, many after decades in exile, some setting foot in their homeland for the first time. The U.N. projects that number could swell to four million by year’s end.
“The risk that Islamic State Khorasan sees these newly arrived Afghans as a potential recruitment pool is high,” warned Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former U.N. counterterrorism official.
Security has broadly improved since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, but IS-K, the local branch of the so-called Islamic State, remains active. With roughly 2,000 fighters, the group has staged attacks not only in Afghanistan but also in Russia, Iran, and Pakistan.
New arrivals, stripped of livelihoods and facing hostility, confront staggering hardship. “They face enormous challenges, without jobs, housing, or access to basic services,” said Indrika Ratwatte, the U.N.’s humanitarian coordinator. Nearly half of Afghanistan’s 48 million people already live below the poverty line; unemployment among young adults nears 25 percent.
Diplomats warn that desperation, rather than ideology, could drive recruits into militant ranks. “Some Afghans join terrorist groups not out of conviction, but out of economic necessity,” one European source noted.
For many returnees, resentment simmers toward Pakistan, where property and businesses were seized. “They’re the perfect fodder for transnational terrorist groups,” said Amina Khan of Islamabad’s Institute for Strategic Studies.
Russian officials estimate Afghanistan now hosts 23,000 fighters from 20 militant organizations. The Taliban, meanwhile, insist no foreign terrorist groups operate under their watch.
Yet as waves of uprooted families arrive with little but anger and need, observers fear Afghanistan’s fragile stability could be tested anew.
