PARIS – A study published in The Lancet on January 10 reveals that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was approximately 40% higher than official figures reported by Gaza’s Health Ministry.
By June 30, 2024, the ministry reported 37,877 deaths. However, the peer-reviewed study estimated between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries, with a central estimate of 64,260—41% higher than the ministry’s count. This figure accounts for 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, equating to one in 35 residents. Women, children, and the elderly comprised 59% of the deaths.
The study, conducted by a U.K.-led research team, used “capture-recapture” statistical analysis. This method combined data from the health ministry, an online survey, and social media obituaries. The analysis excluded deaths caused by food shortages, lack of healthcare, or thousands presumed buried under rubble.
On January 9, Gaza’s Health Ministry updated the total death toll to 46,006 for the entire 15-month conflict. Researchers emphasized that their estimates address only deaths from injuries and suggest potential underreporting of fatalities.
The war, triggered by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, has left a devastating humanitarian impact on Gaza. The findings underscore the need for greater scrutiny and documentation of the war’s human toll.
