One year ago, few people gave it much of a chance. Yet here it stands, Austria’s three party “traffic light” coalition of the ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS has survived its first birthday. And this week, it received a small but genuinely welcome present: a nudge upward in the polls.
The latest Lazarsfeld survey, polling 2,000 Austrians between February 16 and March 3, shows the coalition’s two bigger partners quietly gaining ground. It is not a revolution. It is not even close to comfortable. But after twelve months of crisis summits, sleepless negotiating nights, and the constant background hum of “how long can this last?” a little good news feels like a lot.
The bad news, as ever, belongs to everyone else. The far-right FPÖ remains completely immovable at 36%, its leader Herbert Kickl watching the competition with the calm confidence of someone who knows the crowd is already on his side. His “Fortress Austria” message has not faded. If anything, it has settled in like furniture. One in three Austrians is not budging and that says something uncomfortable about the country’s political mood that no birthday celebration can paper over.
The ÖVP climbed a quiet one point to 23%. Chancellor Christian Stocker, known fondly as “Buddha” for his unshakeable composure, is slowly making the steady-hand argument work. It is modest. It is unglamorous. But it is something.
The SPÖ delivered the week’s biggest surprise, jumping two points to 18%. For a party that had recently scraped a historic low of 16%, this feels like a genuine exhale. Whether voters are responding to Social Democrat pressure on housing and rising costs, or whether the party’s internal feuding has simply gone quiet long enough to let some light in, the timing is good, a party congress arrives next Saturday, and momentum, however small, matters.
NEOS dipped to 8%, the one sour note. The Greens held at 10%.
Put it all together, and the coalition would still win enough seats to govern if an election were held today, 94 mandates, just clearing the bar.
