BAGHDAD: American forces are preparing to pull out of their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending a two‑decade military presence that cost around 4,500 US lives and reshaped the country’s politics, security and daily life. The withdrawal, hailed by Iran and its allies as a historic victory, is raising fears that Tehran and its network of armed groups will fill the vacuum and that old enemies, including Islamic State, could find new space to regroup, according to Reuters.
The exit was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and is being carried out by the administration of Donald Trump, even as Washington confronts Iran across the region. Iraqi analysts say the departure removes a key counterweight to Iranian influence. “Iran stands to benefit strategically because it takes away a military presence that for years balanced Tehran’s reach in Iraq,” said Jasim al‑Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who studies Iran‑aligned factions. He expects pro Iranian militias to portray the pullout as proof of their strength and to push for greater control over security and political decisions.
Abu Mojtaba al‑Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella of Iran‑backed armed groups, called the withdrawal “a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honourable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project.” On September 30, he said, his fighters would mark “the turning of a black page in Iraq’s history.”
Yet many Iraqis worry the timing is risky. “We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,” said Abdulrahman al‑Zobaie, a tribal leader in Fallujah. “All Iraqis aspire to full sovereignty… But creating a vacuum is what all Iraqis fear.”
US troops first invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling Saddam Hussein and installing a government aligned with Washington before withdrawing in 2011. They returned in 2014 to help crush Islamic State, whose fighters once controlled a third of the country. In recent years, Iraq stood alone as a state maintaining close ties with both Washington and Tehran, even after a US strike killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport in 2020.
Iran now frames the pullout as a win for its “axis of resistance.” “Lasting security will prevail in Iraq once the Americans leave,” said Amir Hayat Moqaddam, a senior Iranian parliamentarian. Washington, however, accuses Iran‑backed militias of using Iraq to strike neighbours, including a recent attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
Security officials also warn that Islamic State sleeper cells are stirring again. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said morale among militants has risen since the withdrawal was announced. “Islamic State is seeking to send a message that the group is still powerful,” said Colonel Khalid al‑Bayati in Kirkuk. As the last US convoys roll out, Iraq faces a delicate test: sovereignty without a safety net.
