Asylum applications to the European Union fell sharply last year, but rising unrest in Iran could soon reverse that trend, the EU’s asylum agency warned this week, according to Hurriyet Daily News.
According to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA), the bloc received around 822,000 asylum requests in 2025; a 19 percent drop from the previous year. Officials credited the decline to fewer applications from Syrians, Bangladeshis, and Turks. Still, Afghans made the most new requests, with 117,000 applications, marking a 33 percent increase from 2024. Venezuelans followed, with 91,000 filings.
The report, completed before the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, sounded an alarm about the potential consequences of instability in the Islamic republic. “With a population of roughly 90 million, even partial destabilization could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude,” the EUAA said.
Iran, already one of the world’s top refugee hosting countries, is home to about 2.5 million displaced people, most of them from neighboring Afghanistan, according to UN figures. Escalating violence and political turmoil could force millions more to seek safety abroad, posing a major challenge for Europe and its partners.
The European Commission said on March 2 that it is “enhancing preparedness” by monitoring conditions closely and strengthening cooperation with United Nations agencies and regional partners. When asked for an updated assessment amid the expanding conflict, the EUAA declined to speculate. “The situation remains very fluid,” the agency said. “It would be irresponsible to make hypothetical predictions.”
For now, the EU’s asylum system is seeing temporary relief from declining numbers. But the calm may not last. If the crisis in Iran deepens, Europe could once again find itself grappling with waves of displaced people far greater than any seen before.
