Nuclear Superpowers Untethered as Arms Control Treaty Dies
For the first time in over fifty years, the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals operate without limits. The New START treaty between the United States and Russia expired Thursday, dissolving the last remaining restraint on how many warheads these superpowers can deploy, according to Hurriyet Daily News.
The consequences could be profound. Arms control experts warn that humanity now stands at the threshold of a dangerous new era, one where nuclear stockpiles could grow unchecked and the specter of atomic conflict looms larger than it has in generations.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres didn’t mince words. “This dissolution of decades of achievement could not come at a worse time,” he declared. “The risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades.” Those fears aren’t unfounded, Russia hinted at deploying tactical nuclear weapons early in the Ukraine war, sending chills through diplomatic circles worldwide.
Pope Leo XIV urged both nations to do “everything possible” to prevent a renewed arms race, while Japanese survivors of the World War II atomic bombings expressed haunting concerns. “I have a feeling that in the not-too-distant future, we’ll actually have a nuclear war and head toward destruction,” said Terumi Tanaka, who represents the Hibakusha survivor group.
The treaty, signed in 2010 during warmer U.S.-Russia relations, capped each nation’s deployed strategic warheads at 1,550, a nearly 30 percent reduction from previous limits. Both countries together control over 80 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, making their restraint crucial for global security.
President Donald Trump declined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the treaty’s limits for another year. The Trump administration insists any future agreement must include China, whose nuclear arsenal is expanding faster than any nation’s adding roughly 100 warheads annually since 2023.
China, however, firmly rejected that demand. Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian acknowledged the treaty’s importance for “global strategic stability” but emphasized that China’s estimated 600 warheads pale compared to the Russian and American arsenals. “China will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage,” Lin stated flatly.
Some observers suggest the treaty’s collapse stems less from strategic calculation than from administrative dysfunction. With career diplomats sidelined in the current administration, the intricate work of negotiating such complex agreements may have simply fallen through the cracks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the administration’s position Wednesday: “In order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China.”
Arms control advocates like Daryl Kimball agree China should engage, but note that “there is no indication that Trump or his team have taken the time to propose risk reduction or arms control talks with China” since returning to office.
Moscow claimed both nations are “no longer bound by any obligations,” though the Kremlin promised to act “responsibly and prudently” while warning of “decisive” countermeasures if Russia’s security is threatened.
The symbolic “Doomsday Clock,” which represents humanity’s proximity to catastrophe, recently moved closer to midnight than ever before, reflecting these escalating nuclear risks.
What happens next remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the guardrails are gone.
