By Javid Amin
As the dust settles after the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, the political landscape of the Union Territory has shifted yet again. The CSDS-Lokniti survey, conducted between September 19 and October 6, provides an in-depth look at the election results, voter sentiments, and the emerging power dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir. The election outcomes reveal a region divided by distinct political loyalties, with the National Conference (NC) leading the race in Kashmir and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) solidifying its presence in Jammu. The Congress Party, on the other hand, witnessed a lukewarm performance, raising questions about its relevance in the region’s evolving political narrative.
In this article, we will delve deeper into the 2024 election results, analyze the implications for Jammu and Kashmir, and explore the survey’s findings on the sentiments of the electorate. This comprehensive analysis will highlight the key players, the factors influencing voter behavior, and what these results mean for the future of Jammu and Kashmir.
Key Highlights of the Election Results
- National Conference Emerges as the Largest Party
The National Conference secured a decisive lead by winning 42 seats in the 90-member Assembly. This performance underscores the party’s stronghold in the Kashmir Valley, where it managed to capture the hearts and minds of voters. Under the leadership of Omar Abdullah, the NC campaigned on a platform focused on restoring statehood, creating job opportunities, and safeguarding the region’s autonomy and identity.
- Bharatiya Janata Party’s Stronghold in Jammu
The BJP emerged victorious in 29 seats, primarily within the Jammu region, retaining its influence and solidifying its support base. The party’s strategy focused on issues of national security, development, and promoting a pro-Union stance. Its continued strength in Jammu reaffirms the regional divide, with the BJP’s ideology resonating strongly among Jammu’s Hindu-majority population.
- Congress’s Struggles in the Seat-Sharing Arrangement
The Congress Party faced a challenging election, winning only six seats across the Union Territory. In the seat-sharing arrangement with the NC, Congress fielded candidates in 32 seats but managed to win only five in the Kashmir Valley and one in Jammu. The results suggest that the alliance with the NC may not have yielded the intended results for Congress, highlighting a disconnect with local voters.
- Voter Turnout and Demographics
The voter turnout for the 2024 J&K Assembly elections was approximately 67%, with a noticeable difference in participation between the regions. Voter enthusiasm was particularly high in rural areas, with many young people voicing a desire for jobs and development, while older voters focused on issues of stability and statehood. The turnout and the demographic breakdown provide insights into the priorities and concerns that shaped the electorate’s choices.
Insights from the CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey
The CSDS-Lokniti survey provides a closer look at the sentiments and expectations of the voters, shedding light on the factors that influenced their decisions at the ballot box.
A. Regional Polarization
The survey reflects a stark regional divide in the political preferences of Jammu and Kashmir. While the Kashmir Valley remains largely supportive of the NC, the Jammu region is firmly aligned with the BJP. This polarization speaks to the distinct cultural, religious, and socio-political identities of the two regions, which were further highlighted in this election cycle.
B. Voters’ Key Concerns
The survey revealed that voters were primarily concerned with:
Restoration of Statehood: For voters in the Kashmir Valley, the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood was a top priority, with many feeling that statehood would bring back a sense of identity and autonomy.
Employment and Economic Opportunities: High unemployment rates have long plagued Jammu and Kashmir, and the survey highlighted that job creation was a critical concern, especially among younger voters.
Security and Stability: In contrast, voters in Jammu cited security as their primary concern, with many expressing support for the BJP’s stance on national security and counter-terrorism.
C. Effectiveness of Campaign Strategies
The survey also assessed the effectiveness of each party’s campaign strategy:
National Conference: The NC’s emphasis on statehood and cultural identity resonated well in the Valley, where its campaign was seen as addressing the unique concerns of the region’s people.
BJP: In Jammu, the BJP’s focus on development, national security, and integration with the Union was well-received. The party effectively mobilized its voter base by appealing to regional pride and addressing concerns about national integration.
Congress: The Congress Party struggled to gain traction, with many respondents indicating that its campaign lacked focus and failed to resonate with voters’ primary concerns. The alliance with the NC, though strategic, did not translate into the expected gains.
The Road Ahead: Implications for Jammu and Kashmir
The 2024 election results mark a new chapter for Jammu and Kashmir, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the incoming administration.
- A Coalition Government with Regional Balances
The NC, despite its lead, does not have an outright majority, and the formation of a coalition government is likely. This coalition will need to balance the diverse interests of Jammu and Kashmir, particularly given the regional differences in voter priorities.
- Navigating Relations with New Delhi
The newly formed government will have to navigate a delicate relationship with New Delhi. While the NC has historically advocated for greater autonomy, a cooperative stance with the Union government may be essential for addressing pressing issues such as development, security, and economic growth.
- Addressing Youth Unemployment
The high rates of youth unemployment remain a critical issue. With over 60% of J&K’s population under the age of 30, the government will need to prioritize job creation, skill development, and entrepreneurship programs. The focus should be on building an inclusive economy that provides sustainable employment opportunities for the youth.
- Strengthening Social Cohesion
Given the pronounced regional divides, there is a pressing need to foster unity and social cohesion across Jammu and Kashmir. The government must work to bridge the gap between the two regions by promoting policies that address the unique needs of each area while fostering a sense of shared identity.
Bottom-Line: A New Chapter for Jammu and Kashmir
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections have underscored the region’s complex political landscape. With the NC leading in the Valley, the BJP dominating in Jammu, and Congress struggling to maintain relevance, the results reflect a Union Territory that remains divided along regional lines. However, this election also presents an opportunity for the new government to address the longstanding issues that have impacted the region, including statehood, economic development, and social harmony.
The path forward will require collaboration, both within the coalition government and with New Delhi. By focusing on job creation, security, and the restoration of statehood, the new administration can work towards a more prosperous and united Jammu and Kashmir.
