Harris Gains Support Among Black Voters Following Biden’s Withdrawal
NEW YORK — Support for Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Black voters has surged since President Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the 2024 presidential race. A new poll, released Saturday by The New York Times and Siena College, reveals that nearly 80 percent of likely Black voters would back Harris if a hypothetical pre-election were held today against former President Donald Trump. The poll marks a significant increase for Harris, who has seen support grow to 78 percent compared to the 74 percent Biden received prior to exiting the contest.
Biden’s departure leaves a gap in what was once overwhelming Black voter support. In the 2020 election, Biden secured 90 percent of the Black vote, reflecting a decline in support for Democrats since then.
Trump’s Support Among Black Voters Rises
While Harris holds a considerable lead, the poll also indicates a 6-point rise in support for Trump among Black voters compared to four years ago. Currently, 15 percent of likely Black voters said they would choose the former president, suggesting a shift in voter sentiment as the election approaches. The survey found that seven percent remained undecided or refused to state a preference.
Voter Turnout Expectations Show Enthusiasm for Harris Among Young Black Voters
The poll sheds light on expected voter turnout, with 56 percent of Black voters saying they are “almost certain” to cast their ballots in November. An additional 31 percent reported they were “very likely” to vote, while seven percent described themselves as “somewhat likely.” Only one percent indicated they were “not very likely” to participate, and four percent said they were “not at all likely” to vote.
Harris’s entry as the Democratic nominee has notably energized young Black voters. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll from September found that 69 percent of Black Americans said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” up from 62 percent in April when Biden was still in the race.
Black Voter Support in Key Battleground States Favors Harris Over Trump
The data also shows that Harris leads Trump among registered Black voters in critical battleground states. In a recent Howard Initiative on Public Opinion survey, 78 percent of Black voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicated they would choose Harris over Trump if the election were held today.
Challenges Remain as Harris Struggles to Gain Support from Black and Latino Men
Despite her overall lead, Harris faces challenges with certain demographics, particularly Black and Latino men. A separate Times/Siena poll of likely male voters found that Trump leads nationally by a significant margin, with 51 percent support compared to Harris’s 40 percent. Democratic strategists have expressed concerns, urging the Harris campaign to bolster support among these groups to increase her chances of defeating Trump.
Obama Rallies Black Voters Amid Concerns About Turnout
In an effort to energize Black voters, former President Barack Obama recently campaigned for Harris in Pennsylvania. During a rally, Obama acknowledged concerns about voter turnout, saying, “We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running.” His remarks came in response to reports from campaign officials and community leaders who noted the need for increased engagement among Black male voters.
Poll Methodology and Margin of Error
The latest Times/Siena poll was conducted between September 29 and October 6, surveying 589 Black voters, including 548 who identify solely as Black and 41 who identify as Black in combination with another race or ethnicity. The poll’s margin of error was 5.6 percentage points.
This recent shift in voter dynamics suggests a competitive race ahead, with both candidates seeking to solidify support among Black voters, a key demographic in deciding the outcome of the 2024 election.
