PARIS – Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN), is at a pivotal moment that could propel her closer to power—or derail her ambitions. A no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, over disagreements on the 2025 budget, has placed Le Pen at the center of France’s political upheaval.
The budget aims to reduce France’s deficit from 6% of GDP, but Le Pen claims it lacks sufficient concessions, despite Barnier meeting some of her demands on social security. She has aligned with the left to push for Barnier’s removal, accusing President Emmanuel Macron’s government of mismanaging public finances. However, critics question whether her motivations are national interest or personal ambition.
The stakes are immense. If successful, Le Pen could position herself as a leading contender to challenge Macron’s weakened presidency. A recent poll shows 62% of voters believe Macron should resign if his government falls. However, the risks for Le Pen are equally significant. Backing the no-confidence vote could destabilize France politically and economically, potentially alienating voters if she is seen as responsible for plunging the country into chaos.
Adding to her challenges, Le Pen faces legal troubles, with a March 2025 court ruling pending on allegations of misuse of European Parliament funds. A conviction could result in a prison sentence and a ban from public office, jeopardizing her presidential ambitions.
Le Pen has run for president three times, coming closest in 2022. With Macron’s early elections in June leaving France in political gridlock, this could be her best—or last—opportunity. However, growing support for RN’s young leader Jordan Bardella, seen as a potential 2027 frontrunner, adds further pressure.
No French government has fallen to a no-confidence vote since 1962, making this a moment of profound opportunity and peril for Le Pen.
