Brussels — European leaders offered their congratulations on Wednesday to Donald Trump following his sweeping victory in the U.S. presidential election, but many are bracing for potential challenges in defense, trade, and European autonomy, experts tell Al Jazeera.
Trump’s stance on NATO and defense spending is expected to be a major point of tension. During his previous term, he pushed European countries to increase their defense budgets, even threatening to pull U.S. support if they did not meet NATO’s two percent of GDP target. Experts predict that under a second Trump presidency, he will push even harder for a three percent pledge. “Europeans recognize the need to boost defense spending, but political will has often lagged behind,” said Anna Wieslander of the Atlantic Council. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the urgency to bolster European security has grown, but U.S. support may be less reliable if Trump reduces aid to Ukraine, a policy he advocated during his first term.
While Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran and his tough approach to NATO have resonated with some in Europe, others are more wary. Guy Verhofstadt, a prominent European parliamentarian, expressed concern on social media about Trump’s return, calling him a “convicted felon” who “doesn’t share our values” and warning that liberal democracy is at risk. French President Emmanuel Macron, who has long championed European strategic autonomy, indicated on Twitter that he would seek greater unity in Europe in response to the changing U.S. leadership. However, the political turbulence in both France and Germany—where Macron’s coalition is unstable and Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a vote of confidence in January—raises questions about Europe’s ability to act decisively in this new global context.
Dimitar Bechev, a professor at the University of Oxford, noted that Macron and Scholz’s domestic challenges could hinder Europe’s ability to pursue a more autonomous defense and foreign policy, though he believes that pressure from Trump and Russian aggression might eventually push Europe toward greater cohesion.
Another major concern is Trump’s trade policies. He has promised aggressive tariffs on imports, including a 10 percent tariff on European goods and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports. This could spark a trade war with the EU, with Trump using tariffs as leverage to push European industries to relocate to the U.S. “We’re heading for protracted negotiations and potentially a full-scale trade conflict,” said Catherine Fieschi of the European University Institute. Trump’s trade policy, coupled with his protectionist stance, could drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies, creating friction in global supply chains and economic growth.
The EU’s increasing reliance on U.S. imports, particularly in defense and energy, has raised concerns over European autonomy. While the EU has made strides toward strategic independence—especially in energy—its defense procurement still heavily relies on the U.S. The EU’s transition to renewable energy also means it continues to spend heavily on fossil fuel imports, a significant portion of which comes from the U.S.
Despite these challenges, some experts believe that Trump’s return to the White House could inadvertently push Europe toward greater unity and autonomy. “Trump and Putin may ultimately shape the future of Europe,” said Constantinos Filis, a professor at the American College of Greece. As Europe faces mounting pressures on both security and trade fronts, the next few years will likely be a critical period for EU leaders to balance their relationship with the U.S. while also pursuing more independent policies.
In the meantime, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. leadership under Trump is prompting both concern and anticipation in Europe. “It’s not going to be an instant wake-up call, but over time, Europe will have to adapt to this new, unpredictable reality,” said Fieschi.
