The Austrian legislative election of September 29, 2024, marked a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) emerged victorious with 28.8% of the vote, achieving its best-ever result. Despite its historic win, the FPÖ faced a political cordon sanitaire, with all other major parties refusing to enter a coalition with its controversial leader, Herbert Kickl. This left the incumbent Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which secured 26% of the vote, to lead efforts to form a government. The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), finishing third with 21%, and the liberal NEOS party (9%) are expected to join the ÖVP in Austria’s first three-party coalition since 1945. This coalition government is projected to take office by January 2025, although negotiations are fraught with challenges.
Election Results and Context
The election highlighted Austria’s polarized political climate. The FPÖ capitalized on growing anti-immigration sentiment, vaccine skepticism, and dissatisfaction with European Union policies. These issues resonated with rural and working-class voters, giving the FPÖ significant gains compared to the 2019 election. Meanwhile, the governing ÖVP suffered heavy losses, falling by 11 percentage points, while the SPÖ recorded its worst post-war result. The Greens, the ÖVP’s coalition partner in the outgoing government, also lost ground, dropping from 14% to 8%
The political shift occurred against the backdrop of multiple crises during the previous legislative period, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic challenges, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and allegations of corruption within the ÖVP leadership. These factors contributed to widespread voter dissatisfaction with the traditional governing parties
Coalition Negotiations
After the election, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen broke tradition by not inviting the leader of the largest party (FPÖ’s Herbert Kickl) to form a government. Instead, he tasked ÖVP leader and incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer with negotiating a coalition. This decision reflects broad resistance to the FPÖ’s inclusion in government due to its hard-right positions and Kickl’s polarizing leadership.
The emerging coalition of ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS is notable for its ideological diversity:
ÖVP (Austrian People’s Party): A center-right party emphasizing fiscal conservatism, reduced government spending, and a hardline stance on immigration.
SPÖ (Social Democratic Party): A left-leaning party under Andreas Babler, advocating increased social spending, wealth taxes, and progressive immigration policies.
NEOS (The New Austria and Liberal Forum): A pro-business, liberal party focused on education reform, pension system overhaul, and fiscal discipline.
This coalition, dubbed the “losers’ coalition” by critics due to the parties’ losses in the election, will hold only a slim majority in the National Council. Negotiations have been contentious, with significant differences in policy priorities. For instance, the SPÖ supports wealth taxes to expand welfare programs, while the ÖVP insists on tax cuts and economic liberalization. The NEOS push for pension reform and educational improvements adds further complexity.
Challenges and Implications
The coalition faces several immediate hurdles. First, addressing Austria’s growing budget deficit, which neared 4% of GDP under the outgoing government, will require difficult compromises. Balancing fiscal responsibility with divergent policy priorities—ranging from the ÖVP’s pro-business stance to the SPÖ’s social welfare agenda—will be a central challenge. Additionally, the coalition must navigate public skepticism, as many voters perceive the alliance as a pragmatic but unprincipled effort to exclude the FPÖ.
The coalition’s agenda will likely focus on areas of consensus, such as economic stabilization and tackling inflation, while postponing more divisive reforms. The FPÖ’s strong performance will also exert pressure on the government to address public concerns about immigration, energy policy, and EU relations. Failure to deliver on these fronts could further embolden the far-right in future elections.
Timeline and Outlook
Formal coalition negotiations are ongoing, with an official agreement expected by late January 2025. The timing reflects a strategic delay, as parties aim to minimize political risks ahead of regional elections in Styria and other important electoral milestones.
While the three-party coalition represents a historic effort to bridge Austria’s political divides, its long-term stability remains uncertain. Success will depend on the ability of party leaders to compromise and address the pressing concerns of an electorate increasingly skeptical of traditional political structures.
In summary, Austria’s 2024 election underscores the fragmentation of its political landscape and the growing influence of populist movements. The emerging coalition government may stabilize the nation in the short term, but it faces significant challenges in fostering public trust and achieving cohesive governance in a deeply polarized environment.
