Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — As leaders from dozens of Arab and Islamic nations gather for a summit in Saudi Arabia, there is widespread speculation about what a second Donald Trump presidency would mean for the Middle East. Gulf countries, in particular, seem to view Trump as a stabilizing force, despite concerns in Europe about his unpredictable nature.
In an opinion piece in Arab News, prominent UAE business leader Khalaf al-Habtoor praised Trump’s approach, stating, “In a Middle East where security is paramount, Trump’s focus on strengthening alliances and curbing extremist forces offers a way forward.” This contrasts sharply with President Joe Biden’s less favorable reception in the region, especially after Biden’s criticism of Saudi Arabia over human rights issues.
Trump’s relationship with Saudi Arabia, and particularly with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), is well-documented. His administration’s stance, particularly through his son-in-law Jared Kushner, built a strong personal and political connection with MBS. This bond remains strong, with the crown prince having long memories of Biden’s comments about making Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state.
Trump’s record in the Middle East was a mixture of bold moves and contentious decisions. His administration alienated Arab nations by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and endorsing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. However, it also brokered the Abraham Accords, leading to normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.
A critical part of Trump’s policy was his hardline stance on Iran. In 2018, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), calling it “the worst deal in history.” His administration also took a tough approach toward Iranian military activities, including ordering the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, in 2020.
However, the Middle East is not the same as when Trump left office. Israel is currently embroiled in a war with Hamas and Hezbollah, while tensions with Iran are high, with both sides exchanging attacks across the region. Under Biden, U.S. influence in the Middle East has been seen as waning, especially as the White House struggled to balance support for Israel with calls for restraint in the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
Trump’s potential return to the White House is expected to empower Israel further, with analysts predicting that the U.S. under Trump would likely give Israel more freedom to target Iranian interests, including oil and nuclear sites that the Biden administration has refrained from addressing.
“Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region have made Trump a key ally to many Gulf states, and his return is expected to intensify efforts to limit Iranian influence,” said Joshua Steinrich, a former Israeli intelligence officer.
Yet the landscape in the Middle East is shifting. A historic détente brokered by China has led Saudi Arabia and Iran to bury the hatchet, signaling a potential thaw in one of the region’s most enduring rivalries. Saudi and Iranian military officials are now in talks to strengthen cooperation, a stark contrast to the years of hostility that included a brutal proxy war in Yemen.
The surprise 2019 drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, attributed to Iran-backed forces, underscored the vulnerability of Gulf states to Iranian influence. In light of this, many are watching closely as the region’s dynamics continue to evolve.
With the Arab and Islamic summit calling for an end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, there is both optimism and uncertainty about what a second Trump presidency would mean for the region’s fragile alliances and the broader geopolitical landscape.
