According to media news: India has formally issued a second notice to Pakistan, urging a “review and modification” of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement that has regulated the use of the Indus River and its tributaries between the two nations since 1960. This move comes after New Delhi’s initial notice in January 2023, highlighting India’s intent to address what it perceives as significant shifts in the geopolitical and environmental landscape over the past six decades.
India’s call for a treaty overhaul is rooted in the evolving dynamics of population growth, agricultural demands, and the increasing complexities of water usage. The latest notice, issued under Article XII (3) of the treaty, underscores India’s push for renegotiation. At the centre of the current dispute are two contentious hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir—the Kishanganga and Ratle projects—which Pakistan has long argued infringe upon the IWT’s stipulations. Pakistan fears these projects could threaten the water flow critical for its agriculture, thereby jeopardising the livelihoods of millions.
India, on the other hand, asserts that its growing population and changing agricultural needs necessitate amendments to the treaty. Indian officials argue that the current agreement impedes the construction of new water reservoirs essential for the nation’s water security. Furthermore, New Delhi controversially links the water-sharing disputes with broader concerns over terrorism and cross-border infiltration, suggesting that these issues hinder the full utilisation of India’s water entitlements under the treaty.
The IWT, brokered by the World Bank, is widely regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing accords in history. It allocates the waters of six rivers between the two countries: India controls the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej (eastern rivers), while Pakistan holds rights over the Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum (western rivers). While the treaty permits India limited use of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes, including power generation, the design and operation of hydropower projects like Kishanganga and Ratle have been persistent flashpoints.
Pakistan has repeatedly voiced concerns that these projects violate the treaty by altering water flows, which are vital for its agricultural sector. The 330 MW Kishanganga project on the Jhelum River and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab River, located in the region India terms as Jammu & Kashmir, are at the heart of the dispute. Islamabad argues that these projects could significantly reduce water availability downstream, directly impacting Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture that heavily relies on the Indus River system.
In an effort to resolve these disputes, Pakistan sought arbitration through the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2016 after raising concerns over Kishanganga in 2006 and Ratle in 2012 at the Permanent Indus Water Commission. In response, India requested the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert under the treaty’s provisions, arguing that bilateral mechanisms had not been exhausted. India subsequently boycotted the PCA proceedings, questioning the court’s jurisdiction.
In a notable turn of events, the PCA in The Hague, in April 2023, dismissed India’s objections, thereby reopening a procedure that had been in limbo for years. The court ruled that it had the “competence to determine” the dispute concerning changes in the designs of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants, thus deeming Pakistan’s case admissible. This decision marked a significant development in the long-standing water-sharing conflict, potentially setting the stage for a reassessment of the treaty terms.
The escalating tensions over the IWT underscore the complex interplay of water security, national sovereignty, and regional politics. As India presses for amendments to facilitate its hydropower ambitions and water storage needs, Pakistan remains steadfast in its stance to safeguard its water rights and agricultural lifeline. With the second notice now formally issued, both nations stand at a critical juncture, where dialogue and diplomacy will be pivotal in averting a deeper crisis over the precious resource that is water.
